Genomic epidemiology identifies emergence and rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 in the United States
California, 7 February
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.06.21251159v1
B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, has gained a strong foothold across the world
Detection of the variant increased at a logistic rate similar to those observed elsewhere
Doubling rate of a little over a week
Increased transmission rate of 35-45%
Several independent introductions
From late November 2020
Onward community transmission, 40 states
U.S. is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 rapidly became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant
Requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality
Florida
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1358645754248761346%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Fuk-covid-news-latest-updates-on-coronavirus-lockdown-and-vaccine-12212131
Super Bowl parties in Tampa (Dr Eric Feigl-Ding)
Hundreds of people, tightly packed, not wearing masks
B117 is becoming dominant in Florida
Quarantine for 14 days
South Africa suspends Oxford AZ vaccine
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/astrazeneca-oxford-vaccine-south-african-variant/2021/02/07/e82127f8-6948-11eb-a66e-e27046e9e898_story.html
https://www.news24.com/health24/medical/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/results-from-novavax-vaccine-trials-in-the-uk-and-south-africa-differ-why-and-does-it-matter-20210202
https://www.wits.ac.za/covid19/covid19-news/latest/oxford-covid-19-vaccine-trial-results.html
One million doses arrived
Minimal protection against SA variant
Health Minister Zweli Mkhize, rollout paused
Variant became dominant in November
No significant protection against illness, but all the cases of disease were mild or moderate
Vaccinated people will probably still allow ongoing transmission
As has been recently reported in those with prior infection
The study
Witwatersrand and Oxford
N = 2,000
Examined adults between 18 and 64
Seven sites in South Africa
Last summer and fall
B.1.351 (92% of all current cases in SA)
Eeek mutation, E484K
E = Glutamate
K = Lysine
N501Y as well
Three US states, Virginia
SA variant in the UK
https://news.sky.com/story/uk-covid-news-latest-updates-on-coronavirus-lockdown-and-vaccine-12212131
Cases, 147
Vaccine group
19 cases of covid-19 caused by the variant
Mild disease was defined as at least one symptom of COVID-19
Placebo group
20 cases
Suggests 10% effective
Or 22%
Participants in the trial were young and healthy
Median age 31
Therefore, severe disease protection unknown
Novavax and Johnson & Johnson, 50 to 60%
Janssen, (J and J) protected against moderate to severe disease
Might need to move from hoped for herd immunity to individual severe disease protection
Vaccine after effects
February 4, 2021
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/vaccine-after-effects-more-common-in-those-who-already-had-covid
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-vaccine-pfizer-effects
Likelihood of experience one or more mild systemic after effects
N = 280,000
From a Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine dose
Data comes from a sub-sample, n = 40,000
Largest study group outside of trials
Up to 4th January, many HCWs
Not previously infected, 19%
Previously infected, 33%
Systemic after effects, Pfizer/BioNTech
Fatigue 9%
Headache 8%
Chills or shivers 4%
Most mild systemic after effects appeared in the first two days
Only 3% of people have any after effects beyond three days
Local effects, pain or swelling
After the first dose, 37%
After the second dose, 45%
At least one systemic effect (within 7 days)
After the first dose, 14%
After the second dose, 22%
Men, 13%
Women, 19%
Under 55s, 21%
Over 55s, 14%
Same study, vaccine hesitancy
Over one million app users
Yes, 95%
Unsure or unwilling, 5%
Main three reasons given by hesitant contributors
Long term side effects, 50.2%
Lack of knowledge, 37.2%
Concerns about potential adverse reactions, 30.9%
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