October 23, 2021

ACN News

Area Control Network News | Breaking News

COVID cases increase and new variant

3 min read

UK

ONS, 6 to 12 December 2020

England

Prevalence, 567,300

One in 95 people

London, East of England, East Midlands, South East

North West, Yorkshire, The Humber

Scotland

Up to 1 in 100

Wales

Up to 1 in 90

COVID-19 deaths

Decrease slightly for second week in a row

Deaths, + 2,756 in the week

Deaths remained above the five-year average in all English regions and in Wales

UK Official data

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

CDC trends (Thursday, 10th December)

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

Official US hospitalizations

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html

https://covidtracking.com

US

Hospitalizations, 117,777

Deaths, + 18,268 in the last 7 days

Week before, 17,291

Week before, 15,215

LA county

One in 80

Fresno County, CA

We had 9,572 new Covid-19 cases last week over seven days, an all time high for us.

The ICU beds in the county are full.

A new 50 bed ICU ward was opened today and there are plans to open overflow beds for Covid-19 patients in the convention center

We have been short staffed at my work related to staff members testing positive for Covid-19.

I find it very frustrating that people I know say this is not a real pandemic because only 1% of patients die.

Some people are getting very sick and the rest of us need to protect them by wearing masks, social distancing and avoid group situations.

Jeremy Luban, virologist, University of Massachusetts Medical School

It may very well be here.

It may have even started here.

The sequencing in the U.S. is so sporadic

It makes sense that it was detected first in the U.K. because they have probably the world’s best surveillance program.

Angela Rasmussen, virologist, Georgetown Center for Global Health Science and Security

It would not shock me at all to find out that it also is circulating in the U.S

the coronavirus already in the United States is spreading easily

a new variant will not change the need for people to follow public health guidance

I don’t think a travel ban is going to be particularly helpful

We already have out-of-control transmission of all the variants that are circulating in the U.S.

November, 30,000 direct passengers to US from LHR

Mutation / new variant, N501Y, B.1.1.7

Significance of 2020 12 was not clear until 8th December, by analysing epidemiological data in Kent

Sequencing takes 3 weeks and hundreds are needed for correlation studies

First identified 21st September

Increased viral load or increased viral shedding?

The country with the best genomic monitoring has the most mutations?

UK sequencing, 45% of global total of sequencing

Denmark has highest per capita sequence, and 10 cases 2020 12 have been picked up there

Australia has picked up 2 cases of 2020 12

There have been contemporaneous increases in incidence in several countries

Mutations occur at equal rate in every part of the world

South Africa mutation has similar effects as 2020 12 but arose separately

Nigeria (206 million) has a sharp increase in cases, despite poor levels of testing and no genomic sequencing

Possible children may be more suspectable to 2020 12

Any one infected person can be infected with a range of viral genomes

Likelihood of long COVID not likely to be caused by viral variant

Biology of linkage between genetic changes and viral behavioural change is poorly understood

R 0.8 up to 1.2

UK R today 1.2

Europe was R = 3 without controls

More likely to arise in immunocompromised patients

RNA Bases

A C U G

adenine, cytosine, uracil, and guanine

AAGCUGCUGUGUCCUCCUCUUGUUCGACGACACAGGRG

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0092867420306292

Virus, 29,903 base RNA code

Taiwan

Population 23 million

Not happy

Roll back foreign flights and tighten quarantine requirements for crew

Cargo pilot

NZ, said to already be coughing during his last flight, did not wear a mask at all times

First locally transmitted case since April

No community spread for 253 days

Source: Dr. John Campbell

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